fazTimes media reports tensions between Iran and Israel are pushing up oil prices globally, which might lead to a significant fuel price hike in the UAE, according to BBC News, following Israel's attack on Iranian sites. The incident caused fears of a long-lasting war in a region that was already unstable.

When the attack happened, oil prices went up by 14% right away. At the end of the week, Brent oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude were each worth $74.23 per barrel, which is 7.02 and 7.26 percent more than they were the week before. Now, experts are warning that a bigger rise could push prices above $100 per barrel. The increase would have an effect on fuel prices in the Gulf, including in the United Arab Emirates, as well as on energy markets around the world.

Fuel in the UAE costs Dh2.58 per liter for Super 98, Dh2.47 per liter for Special 95, and Dh2.39 per liter for E-Plus in June 2025. However, if global crude oil prices continue to rise, individuals in the United Arab Emirates might face higher fuel prices when the new rates are revealed next month.

Oil prices jumped 14% after Israel's strikes, showing market sensitivity. Attacks on energy infrastructure could push prices over $120. Zaye Capital's CFO, Aslam, said the market is highly volatile. "Any disturbance in this oil-rich area could cause crude prices to skyrocket."

During times of war and uncertainty, the market

Earlier conflicts have been similar to the ones going on now. In October 2024, Israel also attacked Iranian nuclear sites, which led to mostly missed retaliatory drone strikes. The situation didn't escalate further. Analysts, prepared for the worst, now hope for a similar calm pattern.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya from Swissquote Bank said one possible scenario is de-escalation, which could bring oil prices below $70 and shift focus back to supply and demand. "The other is a more general increase that could drive prices up to $90 to $100 per barrel."

Many people call the situation between Israel and Iran right now a "full-scale conflict." According to Al Jazeera, the latest conflict has already caused worry in the area, and Western and Gulf countries are calling for calm to keep the world's energy sources from becoming even less stable.

How Important Is the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz is getting more attention again. Every day, more than 20 million barrels of oil pass through it. Analysts say that if Iran tries to block or mess with traffic on this small waterway, it could send oil prices above $100 and put the world's supply chains at risk.

Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank said the Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transit point, and even brief disruptions could trigger a sharp price spike. Hansen added that markets are tense, with traders closely watching military and diplomatic developments in the region.

How long will the price hike last?

Even though people are worried about prices going too high, many experts in the field think that the current rise may not last for long. Norbert Ruecker, head of economics at Julius Baer, says the world oil market is still strong and can handle short-term changes.

Ruecker said oil prices spike during conflicts, but these spikes are typically short-lived. The market is currently strong with no immediate threat to supplies. He listed several reasons for optimism, including a diverse range of oil supplies beyond the Middle East, substantial storage reserves in China and the West, and the availability of more than 5% of the world's output as spare capacity.

Ruecker said unless there's a major disruption, oil prices will likely return to previous levels, but they're raising their near-term target to $72.5.

Why does this matter to people in the UAE?

The UAE updates its fuel prices monthly based on global rates. If the price rise remains in effect until July, drivers in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah may have to pay more for gas. Local businesses that depend on transportation, like shipping, delivery platforms, and ride-hailing services, could also be hurt and may have to charge customers more.

Inflationary pressures caused by rising energy costs may also make it hard for middle-class families to pay their electricity and grocery bills.

What It Costs to Play Politics

Still, the Gulf is a major source of energy for the world. However, events in geopolitics have a big effect on it. Many people in the UAE are watching how the conflict between Israel and Iran affects the stability of the area and the price of fuel.

According to Dr. Reem Al-Falasi, an economist at a regional think tank, "The UAE economy is well-diversified, but oil remains a critical part of the equation." Trade, tourism, and investor sentiment could all be impacted by a protracted conflict. She also said that the UAE government could take steps to lower fuel prices, like short caps or subsidies, but that these steps would depend on how long the global problem lasts.

Happy Wishes for Peace

Even though things are getting worse, some analysts are cautiously hopeful. Reuters reported that major players such as the US, Qatar, and the EU are allegedly engaged in private discussions about ways to defuse the situation.

Ozkardeskaya said diplomacy is key to long-term market stability, and investors are now hoping for a cooling-off period like in late 2024.

That being said,

Rising oil costs and Middle East tensions could soon hit UAE gas stations. Global events will decide if it's a short-term spike or a longer trend. There's still hope the region avoids a long war and calm prevails. Until then, it's wise to monitor fuel use and oil markets.