China's factory activity experienced a sharp contraction in April, the fastest in 16 months, according to a recent factory survey. This downturn has reignited calls for further economic stimulus as Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs reversed two months of recovery. The data contradicts Chinese officials' confidence in the economy's ability to withstand the U.S. trade shock and indicates persistent weakness in domestic demand. 🇨🇳

Manufacturers, who had been front-loading exports to avoid the tariffs, are now facing the reality of the levies, putting pressure on policymakers to rebalance the economy. 💼

China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in April, down from 50.5 in March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This is the lowest reading since December 2023 and below the Reuters poll median forecast of 49.8. The non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, also declined to 50.4 from 50.8, but remained above the 50-mark, indicating growth. 📊

"The sharp drop in the PMIs likely overstates the impact of tariffs due to negative sentiment effects, but it still suggests that China’s economy is coming under pressure as external demand cools," said Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics. He predicts the economy will expand by only 3.5% this year, despite increased government fiscal support. 📉

Huang noted that the survey respondents' negativity likely exaggerates the tariff impact, pointing out that "the new export orders index dropped back to its lowest level, COVID-19 disruptions aside, since April 2012." 🌍

President Trump's decision to impose 145% import duties on Beijing comes at a challenging time for China, which is grappling with deflation, sluggish income growth, and a prolonged property crisis. Beijing has relied heavily on exports to support its fragile economic recovery post-pandemic and only recently began to focus on boosting domestic demand. 💰

NBS statistician Zhao Qinghe attributed the decline to "sharp changes in (China's) external environment." A separate private sector survey also revealed a significant drop in new export orders and a slowdown in overall factory activity. 📉

Following the data release, China's yuan inched lower against the dollar, signaling early signs of economic damage from Trump's tariffs. 💵

China has repeatedly denied seeking negotiations with the U.S. to resolve the tariff issue, instead betting on Washington making the first move. Consequently, Beijing has accelerated its stimulus plans to mitigate the economic impact of losing its largest customer, at least temporarily.7 ⏳

Key Data:

Metric	April 2025 Reading	March 2025 Reading	Change
Official PMI	49.0	50.5	-1.5
Non-Manufacturing PMI	50.4	50.8	-0.4
Expected GDP Growth 2025	3.5%	N/A	N/A
US Import Duties	145%	N/A	N/A

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